ABARE Sees 2011 Resources Surge
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Australia's commodity boom keeps growing in strength.After being halted by the credit crunch and recession in 2008-09, it is returning, as the latest monthly commodity price index from the Reserve Bank shows us, with a solid rise now underway for the past three to four months.And figures yesterday & #160;from ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics) confirm the rebound, with a 15% rise in commodity export income forecast for the 2011 financial year.ABARE & #160;commodity export income in the 2010-11 & #160;year hitting & #36;186.8 billion, up from the & #36;162.5 billion in the year to June 2010.The 2011 figure will be within sight of the record & #36;197.45 billion achieved in 2008-09.Next year's forecast total will be the second highest on record and will see an estimated & #36;24 billion in extra income flowing into the economy.A new record & #36;201.2 billion in commodity export revenues is forecast for the 2011-12 financial year.ABARE said the & #160;value of Australia's farm exports is forecast to be around & #36;29 billion in both 2009-10 and 2010-11, before increasing to & #36;32.2 billion (in 2009-10 dollars) by 2014-15. & quot;The projected increase in farm export earnings will be supported by recovering world economic growth and is under the assumption of favourable seasonal conditions in Australia & quot;, according to & #160;Phillip Glyde, executive director, ABARE.The rise in total earnings from & #160;commodity exports next financial year will mainly come from mineral resources, with a 19% rise, to & #36;154 billion forecast.ABARE said that compared with 2009-10, the value of Australian commodity exports is projected to increase by 30% to & #36;211 billion (in 2009-10 dollars) by 2014-15, with earnings from mineral resources exports reaching & #36;175 billion in real terms. & quot;Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2010-11 include barley, rice, raw cotton, sugar, wine, live cattle and dairy products. & quot;However, an expected increase in world grain supplies is likely to continue placing downward pressure on prices in the short term. & quot;Also, herd and flock rebuilding, if seasonal conditions permit, and stronger competition in some of Australia's major overseas markets are likely to put some constraints on exports, & quot; Mr Glyde saidFor energy commodities, export earnings are forecast to rise by around 20% to & #36;66 billion in 2010-11, driven largely by higher forecast prices for oil and coal.For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to increase by around 18% to & #36;88 billion in 2010-11.A forecast increase in export volumes and higher expected prices for Australian iron ore are the main reasons for this projected rise in earnings from metals and other minerals.The bureau warned that the global recovery remains subject to risks, including a premature withdrawal of government policy support and any tightening of financial conditions.It expects & #160;gold prices to average & #36;US1,080 an ounce in calendar 2010, compared with & #36;US973 an ounce in 2009, while the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is forecast to increase to & #36;US77.38 a barrel from & #36;US61.68 in 2009.The Australian dollar is forecast to average about 88 US cents this fiscal year and next, ABARE said. & #160;
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