Europe Worsens

  In Europe the contrast with India and China is dramatic.Even though Asia's giants are slowing, growth is still positive, but for Europe, the economy is tanking, despite six weeks of hopes and whispers that it could be turning.Official estimates on Friday showed the first quarter was the worst on record at European level, although more up-to-date business surveys continue to suggest that the March quarter may have been & #160;the low point of the & #160;recession.GDP fell 2.5% In the March quarter from & #160;the last quarter of 2008, both at the level of the 16-country eurozone and the broader 27-country European Union group, according to the EU statistics office.The fall was significantly faster than the 1.6% contraction in the December quarter when the credit crunch saw economies suffer a near collapse in lending, spending, exports and the starting of a surge in employment.Germany led the way down with a nasty 3.8% slump, the worst since the War. & #160;Current forecasts suggest Germany could see GDP drop 6% this year, making for the worst performance by far since World War II.The country is still being battered (as is Japan, China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and a host of other middle ranking countries) by the global slump in exports.Unlike the US, Canada, the UK and even Australia, European economies and especially Germany are getting little & #160;offsets from consumer spending.Consumers account & #160;for a smaller proportion of the European economic cake and save more and spend less.With unemployment set to soar, those hopes of a slowing in the rate of slide in Europe may have to wait or while, or factor in the impact of the rising toll of joblessThe European Union has & #160;forecast a jobless rate of 9.5% by the end of 2009, & #160;and 11.5% through 2010. & #160;The rate hit 8.9% last month, when Germany's rate hit 8.3% and is forecast to go over 10% next year and remain high into 2011.The French economy shrank for the fourth consecutive quarter, with GDP falling 1.2% from the December quarter. & #160;In Italy, the economy contracted 2.4% from the previous quarter, the largest decline since the & #160;country's & #160;statistics office & #160;began publishing data in 1980.The data came a day after Spain, the other big euro-zone economy, reported a 1.8% contraction in the first quarter. & #160;The smaller economies of & #160;Austria and the Netherlands both contracted by & #160;2.8% for the quarter. Czech and Hungarian GDP reports showed the biggest falls since their records began.Britain, which has been crippled by the credit crunch (more so than by the & #160;current recession) contracted by 1.9%, which is better than the EU as a whole and a lot better than the US and Japan for instance.(This week Japanese growth figures will be released and are expected to slow an acceleration in the pace of contraction from the 4th quarter's 12.2 %.)It must be remembered that China showed its weakest pace of growth on record in the first quarter, growing at an annual 6.1%.US GDP slid & #160;an annual & #160;6.1% in the first quarter, not quite as deep as the 6.3% annual rate in the December quarter. & #160;Quarter on quarter the fall was around 1.5%, so a bit better than Europe and elsewhere.More detailed information on first quarter growth will be released on Wednesday & #160;by Germany and many other mainland European countries as well as that initial estimate from Japan.According to the IMF, global GDP is expected to contract 1.9% this year, with the US dropping 2.8%, euro zone & #160;4.2%, Japan & #160;6.2% and Britain GDP 4.1%. & #160;China will, see growth of 6.5%, down from 9%.According to the Reserve Bank of Australia we will contract 1% this year after a rise of 0.3% over 2008. & #160;  

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